After weeks of rumors, Audi has announced plans to purchase Ducati
for something in the neighborhood of $1.12 billion. But why does a
gigantic auto conglomerate want a tiny bike manufacturer? What will VW
do with Ducati? And, what does the deal mean for that most evocative of
bike brands? Let’s examine the background, business and speak to experts
that may be able to share some insight.
Ducati, a Brief History
It’s
easy to fall into the trap of thinking of Ducati in terms of what it
currently is — the maker of some of the most technically advanced,
fastest, most desirable motorcycles in the world. But, that version of
Ducati has only been around for a relatively short time. Prior to 1985,
the marque changed hands seven times, always flirting with greatness
rather than really achieving it. Fits of genuine mechanical innovation
were tempered with a frequent lack of funds and the limitations that
come from being a tiny, passion-driven, Italian vehicle company.
Then, in 1985, Ducati was purchased by Claudio Castiglioni’s Cagiva
group and shortly thereafter began making world class performance bikes,
including the 851, 888, 916. With that final model, the brand’s
existence in the motorcycling pantheon was forever secured. That, plus
racing success, opened the door for acquisition by Texas Pacific Group.
Ducati was then sold to InvestIndustrial SpA in 2005 and Performance
Motorcycles SpA in 2008. Bizarrely, the Hospitals of Ontario Pension
Plan is one of the company’s largest current shareholders.
“Ducati is good motorcycles, not a good business,” explains industry analyst
Michael Uhlarik.
“It has just not made money for most of its life. Suppliers
consistently go unpaid/late paid, debt goes up but sales refuse to go
much beyond 50,000 units.”
One Billion Dollars
$1.12 billion dollars sound like a lot of money. And, to you or me,
it would be. But, in the world of gargantuan corporations, it’s simply
not that significant.
“Instagram was just acquired by Facebook for $1 billion,” highlights
Jon Alain Guzik, a veteran of the technology and automotive industries.
“What’s worth more, 35 million users or making 40,000 bikes a year?
Instagram’s assets and brand pale in comparison to those of Ducati, but
the two companies achieved the same valuation.”
What’s worth more, 35 million users or making 40,000 bikes a year?
$1 billion is also a trivial sum to a company as large as Volkswagen.
Last year, the Group’s 11 brands (Ducati makes 12), sold 8.4 million
vehicles for a revenue of $209.1 billion. “Consider for a moment that
Volkswagen’s business generates something close to 8 billion euros in
free cash every year,” Barclays Capital analyst Michael Tyndall told
Reuters.
“The company either has to find investments to enhance its return on
capital or it needs to return the extra cash to shareholders.”
What Volkswagen Can Hope to Gain
You’re going to be reading about how VW wants to enable Audi to
better compete with BMW by adding Ducati to its stable. That’s bogus.
BMW motorcycles are as irrelevant to BMW as 40,000 bikes a year will be
to VW. In 2011, BMW Group had a total revenue of about $90 billion, $1.8
billion of which was contributed by Motorrad.
Reuters uses the term “a drop in the bucket.”
You’ll also be hearing speculation about VW gaining technology from
Ducati. Specifically stuff about small engine technology. That is a
tempting rabbit hole to speculate down. Ducati makes 1199cc engines that
make 195bhp. VW makes 1.6-liter engines that make 100bhp. Plug Duc
technology into that Polo and every wins, right? Right? Again, a company
at Ducati’s level — 40,000 bikes as opposed to over 8 million cars and
trucks — simply does not have technology that the bigger company
doesn’t. They don’t have more talent or secret alien technology.
Motorcycle engines play a very different game to car engines. They have
higher specific power outputs, but they do so at a higher price (the
engine is a higher percentage of total vehicle cost on a motorcycle),
with much higher emissions, much lower service intervals and
exponentially lower outright lifetimes. If VW started selling Golfs that
went 175mph, but cost $75,000, got 8 mpg, required $5,000 services
every 4,000 miles and blew up after 20,000 miles, VW would be in a lot
of trouble. That’s before you even factor in emissions standards, which
are far more lenient for motorcycles than cars.
What else? Some marketing tie ins or race team sponsorships or
presence at corporate events are multi-brand dealers? Again, to quote
Reuters,
“a drop in the bucket.” All these benefits are marginal in the context
of one of the world’s largest businesses acquiring a company with the
same valuation as an iPhone app.
Lamborghini, a Case Study?
This isn’t the first time VW has purchased an exotic Italian company
that’s far smaller than the parent brand. In 1998, VW purchased
Lamborghini for $110 million. In 14 years, it’s transformed that brand
from the ridiculed maker of temperamental exercises in wealth flaunting,
to a maker of genuinely good exercises in wealth flaunting, expanding
Lamborghini’s product’s into new segments and bringing in a new
demographic of owner. In 1997, Lamborghini sold 209 Diablos. In 2007,
before the world financial crisis, they sold 2,580 Murcielagos and the
new, smaller, less expensive Gallardo. Perhaps the best indicator of
Ducati’s fate under VW ownership is that neither the Lamborghini brand
nor its products are viewed as watered down or diluted. Under VW
ownership, Lamborghini is healthier and produces more appealing products
than Ferruccio could ever have dreamed for.
In short, Ducati is in safe hands.
So what can we expect for Ducati? “This is TPG Ducati redux,” says
Uhlarik. “Wild talk of ‘IPO on the horizon’ and expanding the line. The
economies of scale are there, but only if they can successfully leverage
brand against low cost manufacturing without negative consequences. No
one has done this in the bike biz so far.”
In short, Ducati is in safe hands. It will continue to innovate and
produce exciting new superbikes and other luxury goods. The 1199 already
promises to be the mostest superbike out there and its heirs will
likely continue to similarly innovate and push the performance envelope.
That’s great news for fans of fast motorcycles, but it’s unlikely that
VW ownership will translate into higher volumes or more affordable
products. Honda doesn’t have much to worry about.
“VW took over Lambo, which similarly made no money for over 20 years
and 5 owners and turned it around,” continues Uhlarik. “If there is one
company that can fully understand the Italian manufacturing proposition
and make it work, it is VW.”
The Real Reason?
Back in 1985, now VW Group chairman Ferdinand Piech passed on a
chance to purchase Ducati for a price he called “peanuts.” Since that
time, it’s been well publicized that he retained an interest in owning a
motorcycle maker.
“The Ducati purchase is driven by VW’s passion for nameplates rather
than industrial or financial logic,” states Credit Suisse analyst Arndt
Ellinghorst to
Reuters. “It’s an unnecessary sideshow to VW’s main challenges.”
“The purchase does have a trophy feel to it, in the sense of
something you might mount up on the wall next to the stag you shot last
year,” an anonymous analyst told the outlet.
“Strategically it’s insignificant for Volkswagen,” Christoph Stuermer told
Business Week. “Its revenue is more than Lamborghini’s and Bugatti’s combined, but to the automotive operations, it’s a mere accessory.”
source from
http://www.wired.com/autopia
by Arun
